The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to tick higher in the February update that’s scheduled for Monday (Mar. 21), based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average projection for -0.08 reflects a slight improvement over the previous month, which indicates US economic activity running moderately below the historical trend rate of growth. Only values below -0.70 signal an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Using today’s average estimate for February as a guide, CFNAI’s three-month average is expected to confirm an expansion that’s moderately below the historical trend but well above the tipping point that marks the start of a new US recession.
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The US stock market continued to climb out of a hole yesterday. The S&P 500 closed at its highest level so far this year. Yesterday’s rise comes a day after the Federal Reserve decided to hold off on rate hikes, citing increased macro risks–here and abroad. But if equities are reacting positively to revived expectations for keeping interest rates lower for longer, is the commensurate rise in the Treasury market’s inflation forecast a potential spoiler for the newly minted party in the stock market?
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● Streak of Low Jobless Claims Longest in More Than 4 Decades | WSJ
● US Job Openings Increased in Jan to 5.54 Million | Bloomberg
● US Job Market’s January Stumble Likely to Prove Temporary | AP
● US Leading Economic Index ticks higher in Feb | CB
● US Consumer Comfort Index Increased Last Week to 1mo high | Bloomberg
● Philly Fed mfg index turns positive–first time in 7 months | MarketWatch
● Dow closes positive for year as commodities rally, dollar dives | Reuters