Recent economic data for the US suggests that the stock market’s hissy fit this year has been a false signal for anticipating a new recession. That’s not surprising—the short-term noise in equity prices is a constant challenge for business-cycle analysis and so it’s not uncommon that market volatility will lead us astray at times. That’s always been the case and nothing’s changed. Looking to markets in isolation of hard economic numbers is a dangerous game if real money is at stake. The challenge is finding a happy medium. The good news is that there are several choices for relatively reliable signals.
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