American companies added 230,000 workers to payrolls in February, a solid improvement over the upwardly revised 182,000 gain for January (based on seasonally adjusted data). Today’s update from the Labor Dept. handily beat the consensus forecast for a rise in the low 180k range. The year-over-year growth rate for private-sector jobs continued to tick lower, but the annual pace of 2.18% through last month continues to reflect a bullish tailwind for the labor market.
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The US stock market has had a rough ride since last summer, dispensing a run of dark signals that align with bear-market forecasts (see here and here, for instance). Does the rally in recent weeks mark a return of the bull market? Maybe, but the evidence is still thin for deciding that the bear-market bias has passed. To understand why, let’s review some numbers.
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● US jobless claims rise but still point to stronger labor market | NY Times
● Challenger, Gray: US job cuts down 18% in Feb vs. Jan | CNBC
● US ISM Non-Mfg Index ticks lower in Feb | Reuters
● PMI: US Services Index dips below neutral mark in Feb | Markit
● Broad-based slowdown of global economic growth in Feb | Markit
● Consumer Comfort in US Falls to Lowest Level of the Year | Bloomberg