US companies added 214,000 workers to payrolls last month, according to the ADP Employment Report for February. The news offers more support for thinking that the economic expansion is in no immediate danger of sliding into a recession. In fact, today’s numbers inspire a degree of upside revision for the near-term outlook.
Continue reading →

The US Treasury market’s implied inflation forecast has surged in recent days, albeit after reaching unusually low levels last month. Nonetheless, the rollercoaster of revising expectations rolls on, and this time there’s an upside bias bubbling. The spread between the nominal 10-year yield and its inflation-indexed counterpart reached 1.48% yesterday (Mar. 1), based on daily data from Treasury.gov. That’s still a low rate relative to the roughly 1.5%-2.5% range in recent years. But the latest pop marks a sharp increase from mid-February, when the market’s inflation forecast at one point dipped to 1.18%.
Continue reading →

● US ISM Mfg Index ticks up but still indicates contraction in Feb | RTT
● PMI: Weakest rise in US mfg output in Feb since Oc 2013 | Markit
● US construction spending up 1.5% in Jan | AP
● Eurozone Mfg PMI growth falls to 12-mo low in Feb | Markit
● Eurozone unemployment rate falls to 10.3% in Jan–a 4-1/2 yr low | BBC
● Global Mfg PMI signals stagnation in Feb | Markit
● Super Tuesday: Clinton, Trump win big; Cruz takes Tex; Rubio has 1st win | CNN
● Moody’s cuts China outlook, cites reform, fiscal risks | Reuters