The US economic trend looks a bit firmer in the wake of today’s update on personal income and spending for January and revised numbers for last year’s fourth-quarter GDP data. Notably, the year-over-year trend for income and spending kicked higher at the start of 2016. Macro risk is still elevated relative to the broad trend six months ago, especially from a global perspective. But for the moment there’s a modestly stronger tailwind blowing in the published numbers for the US—news that eases fears for assuming that the world’s largest economy is sliding into a new recession.
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The US economy’s stall speed expansion in last year’s fourth quarter is on track to accelerate in Q1, according to a variety of estimates. There’s disagreement about the strength of the revival, but a diverse set of forecasts are in agreement that Q1 economic activity will strengthen in the “advance” estimate that the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish on Apr. 29.
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● US Jobless Claims Inched Up, But Still Point to Robust Job Market | WSJ
● Strong US durable goods orders in Jan offer hope for mfg | Reuters
● Consumer sentiment in US holding steady near 3-mo high last week | Bloomberg
● Kansas City Fed composite mfg index falls to 7-year low in Feb | KC Fed
● Eurozone economic sentiment drops more than expected in Feb | Reuters
● Global Finance Leaders Meet as Economic Skies Darken | NY Times