The preliminary numbers for the US macro profile in February look wobbly, based on this week’s updates of purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) for the services and manufacturing sectors. But before we go down that rabbit hole consider this: there’s no sign of trouble in today’s weekly report on initial jobless claims. This leading indicator for the labor market and the economy generally is still signaling a positive trend for the US. The darker message in the PMI data suggests otherwise, which means that one side or the other will soon give way and confirm the opposing outlook. Meantime, let’s review today’s claims data.
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The preliminary numbers for the US economic profile in February are flashing a warning sign, according to Markit’s sentiment data for the manufacturing and services sectors. It’s premature to assume the worst just yet, in part because the nearly complete set of numbers for January still point to growth. Ditto for the Chicago Fed’s January reading of the trend. By contrast, there’s only a handful of data points available at the moment for February. But the early signals for this month suggest that forward momentum will continue to suffer. We’ll know more in the days ahead as new data arrives. Meanwhile, the macro trend appears headed for more deterioration. While we’re waiting for fresh figures, let’s get up to speed on where we stand at the moment for February.
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● New US home sales tumble in Jan on big decline in West | AP
● US Services PMI dips below neutral 50 mark in Feb | Markit
● US mortgage applications fell 4.3% last week | MBA
● Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence index ticks up | ForexLive
● ECB: Private Sector Lending, Money Growth Accelerated In Jan | MNI
● Brazil Receives Junk Rating From Moody’s | RTT
● China stocks tumble more than 6% on Thursday | Reuters