Today’s upbeat numbers on jobless claims raise fresh doubts about the implied warnings of a US recession via a markets-based view of the macro trend. New filings for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, dropping to 262,000—close to the multi-decade low of 255,000 that was reached last July. There’s still plenty of wobbly numbers around to keep everyone guessing. But until further notice, jobless claims no longer deserve a spot on the short list of key indicators worry about.
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US macro risk has eased in recent days, thanks to a mix of upbeat economic reports and a rebound in financial markets. The potential for trouble is still elevated relative to the outlook during last year’s fourth quarter. But for the moment, the numbers generally look a bit less threatening compared with the steady drumbeat of warnings in previous weeks.
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● Strong US industrial output in Jan bolsters growth picture | Reuters
● US Housing Starts Unexpectedly Tumble 3.8% In January | RTT
● Atlanta Fed’s US Q1 GDP estimate ticks lower to +2.6% | Atlanta Fed
● Atlanta Fed’s Bus. Inflation Expectations in Feb unchanged at +1.8% | Atlanta Fed
● OECD Cuts Global Growth Forecast, Warns of Growing Risks | Bloomberg
● Japan exports fall most since 2009 as global slowdown bites | Reuters
● China Jan inflation data shows deflationary pressure persists | Reuters