No change is expected for US retail sales in tomorrow’s January report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average prediction marks a slight improvement vs. the fractional decline posted in the previous month.
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New filings for unemployment benefits fell 16,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 269,000, according to this morning’s weekly report from the US Labor Department. The slide represents a timely challenge to the dark outlook that’s currently reflected in a markets-based forecast for the US economy. In other words, there’s enough ambiguity to keep the crowd guessing, which means that the days ahead could be decisive for deciding which side of the debate about the business cycle is accurate. But for today, at least, there’s a new number in town for the macro profile and it offers an upbeat data point to consider.
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Fed Chair Janet Yellen yesterday said that the recent weakness in financial markets may be a warning sign for the US economy. “Financial conditions in the United States have recently become less supportive of growth,” she advised in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. “These developments, if they prove persistent, could weigh on the outlook for economic activity.” Yellen’s concern is well founded in the current climate. In fact, looking at the latest market numbers through yesterday (Feb. 1110) paints a grim picture.
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● Fed’s Yellen Sounds a More Cautious Note on US Economy | NY Times
● Assessing Yellen’s Warning That Markets Pose Threat to Economy | Bloomberg
● Mortgage refi applications spike due to low interest rates | HousingWire
● Ex-Fed’s Bernanke: Negative Funds Rate Unlikely in Near Future | MNI
● German bond yields sink as Fed seen cautious on rates | Reuters
● The global trade slowdown hits the US Northwest | Seattle Times