● US ISM Mfg Index in Dec falls to lowest level since 2009 | Bloomberg
● US Mfg PMI: Weakest growth in manufacturing in Dec since 2012 | Markit
● Global Mfg PMI: Output inches lower in Dec, virtually unchanged | Markit
● US construction spending dips in Nov, but still rising in YoY terms | MarketWatch
● US consumer spending ticks up in Dec, at multi-year high | Gallup
● German unemployment falls more than expected in Dec | Reuters
● New Saudi-Iran crisis threatens wider escalation | Reuters

It’s a new year and that means that it’s time to roll out a new round of predictions. There’s no reason to think that turning the calendar to January is any more productive for prognosticating vs. flipping the page to, say, April. On the other hand, there’s something about a newly minted year that brings out the forecasting beast in all of us. For good or ill, we’re up to our eyeballs in freshly baked prophecies. Heck, maybe a few of them will actually turn out to be correct. Meantime, here’s an assortment of recent arrivals to feed your habit…
Continue reading →

It’s official—2015 was a rotten year for the major asset classes. Other than a measly 2.5% total return in US real estate investment trusts (REITs) and fractional gains in US stocks and investment-grade bonds, the year just passed delivered black eyes to most of the broadly defined slices of the global asset pie. If you don’t mind a round of statistical abuse, let’s review the numbers.
Continue reading →

● US jobless claims rise to 6-mo high for week through Dec 26 | RTT
● US Consumer Comfort Index turns higher at 2015’s close | Bloomberg
● Caixin China General Mfg PMI slips further into red zone in Dec | Markit
● PMI: Eurozone manufacturing ends 2015 on a high | Markit
● PMI: Upturn in Germany’s mfg sector continues at yearend | Markit
● Saudi Arabia severs ties with Iran; questions loom in volatile region | CNN

Here’s the third and final installment of The Capital Spectator’s year-end review, which recaps some of the memorable titles that have appeared in the weekly Book Bits column in 2015. For the full treatment, see Part I and Part II. Cheers!
Continue reading →

The future’s still uncertain,
but for the moment it’s been a good year so far.

All the best for 2016!