Recession chatter is on the rise… again. And for an obvious reason: there are fresh signs of weakness in several key indicators. But there’s also ample evidence of strength, at least for the moment. How can we separate the signal from the noise? Carefully, methodically, and with a healthy dose of skepticism when we’re told that a single number marks the tipping point. Let’s dig slightly deeper into these guidelines via a summary of best practices for analyzing the mother of all known risk factors.
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● PMI: US Service sector expands at slowest pace since Dec 2014 | Markit
● US consumer confidence inches high in Jan | Conf Board
● S&P Case-Shiller: US home prices continue to rise in Nov | S&P
● Redbook: US Retail Sales Fall 1.4% in First 3 wks of Jan | WSJ
● Richmond Fed: Slightly Slower Mfg Growth in Jan | 24/7 Wall St
● German consumer confidence remains stable: GfK survey | RTE
● The 5 Scenarios Now Facing the Federal Reserve | Bloomberg