The wheels of the US stock market’s discounting machine are spinning rapidly these days as the crowd continues to price in the risk of slower economic growth. The S&P 500 is off a bit more than 8% for the year so far and is lower by nearly 7% over the past 12 months in total-return terms through yesterday (Jan 25). Formal estimates of GDP are on board with the market’s bias for downsizing expectations. The main debating point at this stage centers on one question: How much deceleration is lurking?
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