Housing starts are expected to slip fractionally to 1.169 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in tomorrow’s December update, according to The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast of several econometric estimates. The projection still represents a modest gain over the year-earlier level of residential construction activity.
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Daily Archives: January 19, 2016
A Closer Look At Mean Reversion In The Stock Market
Mean reversion in asset returns is a familiar subject in the academic and empirical literature, but the use–and abuse–of this core concept is all over the map. Depending on where you look, you’ll find interpretations ranging from “it’s nonsense” to a near-religious embrace of the idea that the performance cycle is all you need to know for developing robust estimates of future results. As usual when navigating through the world of finance and economics, however, reality tends to be somewhere in the middle of the extremes.
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Initial Guidance | 19 January 2016
● IMF Cuts 2016 Global Growth Forecast to 3.4%… | Bloomberg
● But IMF still sees 2016 growth rising over 2015’s pace | IMF
● Euro zone inflation confirmed at weak 0.2% YoY rate in Dec | Reuters
● China’s Q4 GDP growth weakest since 2009 | Reuters
● IEA Sees Risk of World Drowning in Oil | Bloomberg
● German investor morale slides in Jan as emg mkt slowdown bites | Reuters