Today’s December updates on retail sales and industrial production for the US delivered disappointing news. Negative comparisons weighed on both indicators for last month, raising more doubts about the strength of the US economy. There’s also a bit of good news on the margins in the year-over-year comparisons. Nonetheless, it’s hard to overlook the deterioration in these numbers as last year came to a close.
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Treasury yields have made a sharp U-turn lately. The 2-year yield—considered the most sensitive to rate expectations—has been sliding this month, falling to 0.90% yesterday (Jan. 14), based on daily data via Treasury.gov. That’s the lowest in about a month. The benchmark 10-year yield has lost even more ground, slipping to 2.10%–the lowest since late-October.
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● Monthly US jobless claims hit highest level since July | MarketWatch
● US Jobless claims rose 7,000 last week, but still near lows | USA Today
● Consumer Comfort Index for US Improved Last Week to 3mo High | Bloomberg
● Chinese stocks breach December 2014 | Reuters
● ECB Minutes Signal Scope For Further Easing | RTT
● UK Analysis: Nov Construction Falls; Could Weigh on GDP | MNI
● Dating financial stress episodes: A new model-based approach | Vox