Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 214,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s December report from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction represents a moderately higher gain vs. the previous monthly increase.
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Daily Archives: January 7, 2016
Upbeat Reports For US Jobless Claims & Job Cuts
A bearish aura weighs on US stocks in the trading so far for 2016, but today’s numbers on jobless claims offers another dose of upbeat news for the labor market. In addition, outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas today reports that US employers laid off fewer works last month—the lowest amount, in fact, since 2000. The two releases follow yesterday’s upbeat estimate on private payrolls for December via ADP’s calculations. In other words, the statistical clues seem be lining up for a decent employment report for December in tomorrow’s official estimate from Washington.
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Is A Bear Market Growling For US Stocks?
Dennis Gartman thinks we’re in one. UBS strategists also see elevated risk of a new bear market. Unfortunately, there’s econometric support for the negative outlook via a Hidden Markov model (HMM), which has proven to be a relatively reliable metric for monitoring regime shift in the market in real time.
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Initial Guidance | 7 January 2016
● US private sector adds most jobs in a year in Dec: ADP | Reuters
● Growth of US services sector slows in December | USN&WR
● US factory orders slip 0.2% in Nov | MarketWatch
● US Job Creation Strong, but Down Slightly at End of 2015 | Gallup
● US Foreign Trade Deficit Narrowed in November | ABA
● World Bank Cuts Global Growth Forecasts | Bloomberg
● China stock trading abruptly halted after 7% plunge | CNN
● Global Composite PMI: growth slows as downturn in emg mkts continues | Markit