Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 212,000 (seasonally adjusted) in December over the previous month in tomorrow’s update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average projection reflects a slightly lesser rise vs. November’s increase.
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The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to slide in December. GMI — an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes — is projected to earn an annualized 2.9% return over the “risk-free” rate in the long term–a conspicuously modest performance relative to recent years. (For details on the equilibrium-based methodology that’s used to generate the forecasts each month, see the summary below). Today’s revised estimate, which is based on data through last month, fell a relatively sharp 40 basis points from the previous month’s update.
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Yesterday’s news that the ISM Manufacturing dipped a bit deeper into the red zone in December raised new questions about the strength of the US economy. This widely followed benchmark fell to 48.2 from 48.6 in November. The slide marks the second straight month of below-50 readings, which indicates contraction. US manufacturing activity, in other words, is stumbling along at the weakest pace in six years.
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● US ISM Mfg Index in Dec falls to lowest level since 2009 | Bloomberg
● US Mfg PMI: Weakest growth in manufacturing in Dec since 2012 | Markit
● Global Mfg PMI: Output inches lower in Dec, virtually unchanged | Markit
● US construction spending dips in Nov, but still rising in YoY terms | MarketWatch
● US consumer spending ticks up in Dec, at multi-year high | Gallup
● German unemployment falls more than expected in Dec | Reuters
● New Saudi-Iran crisis threatens wider escalation | Reuters