● US jobless claims rise to five-month high | Reuters
● US Consumer Comfort Index ticks higher after weeks of sliding | Bloomberg
● US import prices decline for 5th straight month in Nov | WSJ
● UN: World economic growth dips to 2.4% in 2015, slowest since 2008 | WaPo
● IEA expects oil glut to run through late-2016 | Bloomberg
● Bank of England keeps rates at record low | RTT

US retail sales are expected to increase 0.3% in tomorrow’s November report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average prediction reflects a moderate improvement in growth over the previous month’s sluggish gain.
Continue reading →

The case for raising interest rates is wobbly at best, but the Federal Reserve may start the squeezing process at its monetary policy meeting next week. Exhibit A for the hawkish view is the encouraging rise in nonfarm payrolls in October and November. The problem is that there’s no shortage of data that paints a softer profile, including the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model, which is currently projecting (as of Dec. 4) a tepid 1.5% rise in US GDP for the fourth quarter.
Continue reading →

● US Wholesale Inventories Unexpectedly Dip 0.1% In Oct | RTT
● US small-bsusiness owners’ optimism continues to inch lower | Gallup
● Falling gas prices may be boosting consumer spending | CBS MoneyWatch
● US middle class no longer a majority | LA Times
● Fed tightening threatens share buy-backs | Reuters

Consumer discretionary stocks remain the top-performing US equity sector for the trailing 12-month period while energy is still caught in a bearish pattern. Meanwhile, the technology sector has perked up lately, inspiring some analysts to argue that positive momentum for this sector will push these stocks higher still.
Continue reading →

● US job openings fall, hiring steady in Oct | WaPo
● US small business optimism falls in Nov | 24/7 Wall St
● Emerging markets face possibility of slower growth | BBC
● China’s consumer inflation accelerates in Nov | RTT
● China guides its currency to 4-year low | WSJ

Mr. Market is becoming anxious… again. Although the US stock market (S&P 500) has recovered all of the lost ground from the recent Aug-Oct correction, several metrics in the Crash Risk Index suite of benchmarks are flashing warning signs. The overall level of danger is still modest and so it’s premature to assume the worst. Nonetheless, risk has recently increased to its highest level since early Oct., when the market was still reeling from worries that China’s slowdown would trigger a global recession.
Continue reading →

● Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Index decelerates in Nov | EconoTimes
● CB’s US Employment Trend Index stumbled in Nov | CB
● US consumer spending unchanged in Nov | Gallup
● US consumer credit growth slows in Oct | WSJ
● China’s exports fell for 5th straight month in Nov | RTT
● Japan’s economy grew in Q3, according to revised data | Bloomberg

Last week’s news that the ISM Manufacturing Index dipped below the neutral 50.0 mark in November for the first time in three years has inspired some folks to declare that the US economy is on the verge of slipping into a new recession. Perhaps, but letting one indicator drive your analysis of the business cycle is a dangerous game that’s prone to a high degree of error. On the other hand, seeing a new contraction on a semi-regular basis makes for exciting TV interviews.
Continue reading →

Yield-sensitive assets in foreign markets topped last week’s performance ledger for the major asset classes via a set of proxy ETFs. iShares International High Yield Bond (HYXU) secured the top spot for the five trading days through Dec. 4 with a strong 2.8% total return. Following up in 2nd and 3rd place: foreign real estate (VNQI) and broadly defined commodities (DJP), respectively.
Continue reading →