● US Consumer inflation flat in Nov, up 0.5% YoY | USA Today
● NY Fed mfg index still negative, but contraction eases in Dec | MarketWatch
● US homebuilder confidence dips in Dec but remains high | The Hill
● Eurozone Composite PMI dips to 2-mo low in Dec | Markit
● Germany Composite PMI slips to 2-mo low in Dec | Markit
● UK jobless rate falls to 5.2%, lowest since 2008 | Bloomberg
● German investor sentiment ticks higher in Dec | RTE

US industrial production is expected to post a modest rebound, rising 0.1% in tomorrow’s November report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The forecast contrasts with the previously reported 0.2% decline in October.
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Housing starts are expected to rebound to 1.100 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in tomorrow’s November update, according to The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast of several econometric estimates. The projection represents a modest gain over the previous month’s report for residential construction activity.
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The search for objective analysis in the cause of making informed investment decisions is the Holy Grail of finance. Unfortunately, narrative risk continually threatens to derail us on our crucial quest for perspective. Everyone loves a good story, and it’s no different when it comes to finance and economics. The problem: there’s an excess of interesting narratives that too often are bereft of useful information. Genuine insight that’s earned by way of a clear-eyed review of the numbers, in other words, is the exception in a world that’s overflowing with story lines that appeal to emotion rather than intellect.
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● Soft inflation complicates Fed monetary policy | WSJ
● What the Fed might do after it raises rates | WaPo
● Will market volatility delay a rate hike? Probably not. | Bloomberg
● Low interest rates for the long run? | NY Times
● UK inflation turns positive in Nov–first time in 4 mos. | Reuters
● Will low oil prices trigger an emergency Opec meeting? | Telegraph

The safe-haven trade dominated last week’s market activity. Investment-grade bonds in foreign and US markets delivered the only gains for the five trading days through Dec. 11, based on a set of ETFs representing the major asset classes. Leading the way: foreign corporate bonds, which gained 1.2% last week via the PowerShares International Corp Bond ETF (PICB).
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● US retail sales rise 0.2% in Nov | WSJ
● Consumer sentiment in US rise to 4-mo high in Dec | Bloomberg
● US retail inventories ex-autos rose in Oct | Reuters
● Eurozone industrial output rebounds sharply in Oct | RTT
● China’s production, retail sales data signal recovery | RTT
● Japan’s industrial output rises for 2nd month in Oct | RTT
● India’s industrial output hits 5-yr high in Oct | Eco Times
● Deflation trend in India eases in Nov | Times of India

● Swiped: How to Protect Yourself in a World Full of Scammers, Phishers, and Identity Thieves
By Adam Levin
Summary via publisher (Public Affairs)
Increasingly, identity theft is a fact of life. We might once have hoped to protect ourselves from hackers with airtight passwords and aggressive spam folders, and those are good ideas as far as they go. But the truth is, there are people out there — a lot of them — who treat stealing your identity as a full-time job. One such company is a nameless firm located in Russia, which has a trove of over a billion internet passwords. Another set up a website full of live streams of hacked web cameras, showing everything from people’s offices and lobbies to the feeds from baby monitors. Even purchases made in person are still logged by retailers like Target, who are famously vulnerable to hackers. Adam Levin, a longtime consumer advocate and identity fraud expert, is your guide to this brave new world.
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US retail sales rose 0.2% in November, the Census Bureau reports. The increase is a touch higher than the previous month’s 0.1% gain. But the uptick in the monthly data masks the ongoing deceleration in the year-over-year trend. Spending eased to a weak 1.4% annual pace, a seven-month low that’s close to the softest gain since the recession ended in mid-2009. The bad news: it’s no longer about the falling dollar value of gasoline sales due to a bear market in energy.
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Buffett’s Asset Allocation Advice: Take it … With a Twist
Javier Estrada
October 26, 2015
One of the most important decisions retirees need to make is the asset allocation of their portfolios. They can have a static or a dynamic allocation, and simplicity usually favors the former. Warren Buffett recently added another vote for static allocations by revealing that he had advised a trustee to split the bequest his wife will receive 90% in stocks and 10% in short-term bonds. The evidence discussed here shows that, relative to other static allocations, a 90/10 split has a very low failure rate and provides investors with very good upside potential and downside protection. The evidence also shows that two minor twists to the 90/10 split result in two very simple dynamic strategies with even better upside potential and downside protection.
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