The last major economic release for the US in 2015 delivered a cautionary message. Initial jobless claims jumped substantially more than expected, rising to a seasonally adjusted 287,000 for the week through Dec. 26—the highest since July, the Labor Department reports. Claims are still low by historical standards and falling on a year-over-year basis. But putting the latest update into context with recent history hints at the possibility that this leading indicator–after a long and generally consistent decline over the last several years–has run its course in terms of probing ever lower (i.e., bullish) levels. That doesn’t mean that the labor market’s outlook has suddenly switched from positive to negative. Nonetheless, after more than six years of economic growth (in fits and starts), the cycle may be starting to show signs of aging.
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