US economic growth in November remained below the historical trend rate for the second month in a row, according to this morning’s update of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Revised data for the benchmark’s three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) slipped to a negative 0.20 reading last month–down slightly from -0.18 in the previous month and the lowest since March.
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US economic growth is on track to decelerate in the fourth quarter, according to The Capital Spectator’s average estimate via several econometric forecasts. Q4 GDP is projected to rise at a sluggish 1.5% rate (seasonally adjusted annual rate), down from the 2.1% advance in Q3.
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Equities in emerging markets bounced higher last week, jumping 3.4% for the five trading days through Dec. 18 via the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO). The gain–the first weekly advance since mid-November–marks the strongest performance among the major asset classes for the week just passed, based on a set of proxy funds.
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● PMI: Weakest rise in US service sector output since Dec 2014 | Markit
● Kansas City Fed mfg index turns negative again in Dec | KC Fed
● US business expectations for inflation tick higher to 1.9% | Atlanta Fed
● Oil falls to 11-year low | Reuters
● The finer points of aging expansions and bull markets | Bloomberg