Three economic reports arrived this morning, presenting the last round of numbers ahead of this afternoon’s policy statement from the Federal Reserve that’s expected to roll out the first interest-rate hike in nine years. How do the latest figures stack up? Overall, it’s a mixed bag. Housing starts rebounded nicely in November, but industrial output continued to weaken last month. Meantime, the flash December data for Markit’s purchasing managers’ index for manufacturing is still pointing to growth, but the trend is stumbling. Will the numbers du jour convince the Fed to delay a rate hike yet again? Hard to say. In any case, let’s quickly review the latest data dump ahead of the Fed announcement.
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The crowd’s expecting a rate hike when the Federal Reserve publishes its policy statement today at 2:00 pm eastern. Fed fund futures and the 2-year Treasury yield, for example, are telling us that today’s the day when the central bank begins raising its target rate for the first time in nine years.
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● US Consumer inflation flat in Nov, up 0.5% YoY | USA Today
● NY Fed mfg index still negative, but contraction eases in Dec | MarketWatch
● US homebuilder confidence dips in Dec but remains high | The Hill
● Eurozone Composite PMI dips to 2-mo low in Dec | Markit
● Germany Composite PMI slips to 2-mo low in Dec | Markit
● UK jobless rate falls to 5.2%, lowest since 2008 | Bloomberg
● German investor sentiment ticks higher in Dec | RTE