US industrial production is expected to post a modest rebound, rising 0.1% in tomorrow’s November report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The forecast contrasts with the previously reported 0.2% decline in October.
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Housing starts are expected to rebound to 1.100 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in tomorrow’s November update, according to The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast of several econometric estimates. The projection represents a modest gain over the previous month’s report for residential construction activity.
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The search for objective analysis in the cause of making informed investment decisions is the Holy Grail of finance. Unfortunately, narrative risk continually threatens to derail us on our crucial quest for perspective. Everyone loves a good story, and it’s no different when it comes to finance and economics. The problem: there’s an excess of interesting narratives that too often are bereft of useful information. Genuine insight that’s earned by way of a clear-eyed review of the numbers, in other words, is the exception in a world that’s overflowing with story lines that appeal to emotion rather than intellect.
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● Soft inflation complicates Fed monetary policy | WSJ
● What the Fed might do after it raises rates | WaPo
● Will market volatility delay a rate hike? Probably not. | Bloomberg
● Low interest rates for the long run? | NY Times
● UK inflation turns positive in Nov–first time in 4 mos. | Reuters
● Will low oil prices trigger an emergency Opec meeting? | Telegraph