● US jobless claims rise, but remain near historic lows | CBS MoneyWatch
● US Oct job cuts down 14% vs. Sep and 1.3% lower YoY | Challenger, Gray
● US Consumer Comfort Index falls to 7-week low | Bloomberg
● Bank of England expects low rates and inflation to continue | Telegraph
● Economists expect rebound in US Oct job growth | Reuters
● German industrial output slumps in Sep on emg mkt weakness | MNI

Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 135,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s October report from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction reflects a modest improvement over the tepid 118,000 gain in September.
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A December interest-rate hike is a “live possibility,” Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said in yesterday’s testimony in Congress. The Treasury market took the hint and the 2-year Note—said to be the most sensitive maturity for rate expectations—jumped to 0.84% yesterday (Nov. 3), edging up to the highest level in nearly six years, based on daily data from Treasury.gov. Since last month’s low on Oct. 14, the 2-year yield has climbed sharply, rising 27 basis points.
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● US job growth ticks lower in Oct, ADP says | CNBC
● ISM: US services sector growth accelerates in Oct | USA Today
● PMI: US services sector growth moderates in Oct | Markit
● Global growth rebounds in Oct via Composite PMI data | Markit
● Eurozone retail sales fall in Sep: first drop in 6 months | Reuters
● German factory orders slide for 3rd straight month in Sep | Bloomberg

US companies added 182,000 jobs last month, according to this morning’s October update of the ADP Employment Report. The gain is in line with expectations and reflects a moderate increase that suggests that the US economy continued to expand at a stable if somewhat diminished rate compared with recent history. But while today’s release implies that US business cycle risk remained low in October, there’s a worrisome trend to consider for the near-term future: the ongoing deceleration in the year-over-year growth rate.
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Backtests have become the weapon of choice for rationalizing various forms of tactical asset allocation, which has become increasingly popular as a risk-management tool since the 2008 crash. The hazards of backtesting—studying how a strategy performed in the past–are well known, which leads some folks to shun the concept entirely. But that’s going too far.
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● Total light-vehicle sales in US rise in October | MarketWatch
● US factory orders fell again in September | Reuters
● Redbook: US chain store sales tick higher in October | DJ
● PMI: Modest growth for Eurozone in composite data for Oct | Reuters
● PMI: UK services sector growth rebounds in Oct | Markit
● PMI: China services sector growth picks up to 3-month high | RTT

Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 184,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s October update of the ADP Employment Report vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average projection reflects a moderately lower gain vs. the increase in September.
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The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher in October, posting the first rise in three months. GMI — an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes — is projected to earn an annualized 3.4% return over the “risk-free” rate in the long term. (For details on the equilibrium-based methodology that’s used to generate the forecasts each month, see the summary below). Today’s revised estimate, which is based on data through last month, increased 20 basis points over the previous month’s update.
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● US ISM Mfg Index ticks lower, close to neutral level | MarketWatch
● PMI: US mfg output strengthens to 6-month high | Markit
● US construction spending rises in Sep to highest level in 6 years | AP
● PMI: Global mfg activity ticks up in Oct | Markit
● China’s new growth target: 6.5% | Nikkei