The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to decline in the October update that’s scheduled for Monday (Nov. 23), based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The projection for -0.21 reflects a modest decline from -0.09 in September, which indicates US economic activity that’s slightly below the historical trend rate of growth. Only negative values below -0.70 signal an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Using today’s estimate for October as a guide, CFNAI’s three-month average is expected to reflect an expansion that’s moderately below the historical trend but still above the tipping point that marks the start of a new US recession.
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Yesterday’s November survey data from the Philadelphia Fed hints at the possibility that a stronger trend is emerging for the manufacturing sector. The headline number for this regional benchmark posted its first positive reading in three months.
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● US leading indicator rises more than expected in Oct | RTT
● US jobless claims fell for week through Nov 14 | NY Times
● US Consumer Comfort Index sticks close to 13-mo low | Bloomberg
● Philly Fed manufacturing index rises in Nov after 2 monthly declines | RTT
● ECB minutes suggest more stimulus in December | WSJ
● UK retail sales fall in Oct after strong Sep | BBC