Confidence in the US economy has wobbled over the last several months, in part due to mixed updates for several key indicators. But drawing conclusions about the broad trend by cherry picking data points is a dangerous game if you’re looking for reliable estimates of recession risk. Recent history reaffirms this message quite clearly. Despite the rush in some corners this autumn to declare that a new downturn is fate, a diversified set of economic and financial indicators has yet to confirm such claims.
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● FOMC minutes focus on Dec rate hike | Fox
● US housing starts fall to 7-mo low as permits rise | Reuters
● More Eurozone stimulus? Oil may be the key | Bloomberg
● Bank of Japan leaves policy unchanged despite new recession | RTT
● UK retail sales growth slows more than expected in Oct | Bloomberg