US recession risk continues to fade after running moderately higher in recent months. But a variety of business-cycle metrics have only hinted at trouble without crossing the Rubicon. The main concern was linked to higher market volatility. But the economic data merely wobbled without actually falling down. The lesson, once again, is that mastering the art/science of monitoring and evaluating the business cycle requires a methodology that’s based on a spectrum of data that minimizes the potential for confusing market noise with robust macroeconomic signals.
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● US Labor Mkt Conditions Index rises to 3mo high in Oct | EconoTimes
● Conference Board’s Employ. Trend Index points to “solid job growth” in Oct | CB
● Moody’s still projects sluggish growth for G20 nations | EconoTimes
● Int’l Energy Agency sees oil rising to $80/bbl by 2020 | WSJ
● Low inflation persists in China | Reuters
● French industrial output rises more than expected in Sep | Bloomberg
● Industrial production in Italy rises less than expected in Sep | RTT
● Japan’s Oct Eco Watchers Sentiment Index rises, first time in 3mos | MNI