Expectations are in need of a haircut for tomorrow’s preliminary release of the government’s third-quarter US GDP report, according to yesterday’s update of the Atlanta Fed’s unofficial estimate. In contrast with Econoday.com’s consensus forecast for a 1.7% rise in Q3 output, yesterday’s update of the unofficial GDPNow model forecast sees Q3 growth at a tepid 0.8%, down a tick from the bank’s Oct. 20 nowcast of 0.9% and far below Q2’s strong 3.9% rise.
Continue reading
Daily Archives: October 28, 2015
Expecting A Rate Hike Today? Don’t Even Think About It
Economists expect no change in interest rates today when the Fed publishes its monetary policy statement at 2:00pm eastern. Briefing.com’s consensus forecast calls for Fed funds to remain at the zero-to-0.25% target rate that’s prevailed since 2008. Surprising? Not really, courtesy of the recent run of wobbly economic data. Does market data agree? Oh, yeah. The numbers speak loud and clear. If Yellen and company announce a rate hike later today, it’s going to be a major surprise by Mr. Market’s reckoning, as we’ll see in the following tour of the numbers.
Continue reading
Initial Guidance | 28 October 2015
● US durable goods orders continue to fall in September | USA Today
● US business investment is also weak in September | Bloomberg
● US house prices up 5.1% YoY in August | CNBC
● UK Q3 GDP growth slows more than expected | Reuters
● Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence Index falls In Oct | MarketWatch
● Richmond Fed index: mfg contraction eases in Oct | DJ