US economic growth was softer than expected in September, according to this morning’s update of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index’s three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3). Last month’s reading dipped to -0.09, the lowest since this past May. Despite the latest slide, this benchmark of economic activity remains well above its -0.70 tipping point that marks the start of recessions, according to Chicago Fed guidelines. But while the US avoided a downturn last month, it’s clear that growth is still sluggish and will probably remain so for the near term. Indeed, the Atlanta Fed’s current nowcast (as of Oct. 20) for third-quarter GDP is a weak 0.9% (seasonally adjusted annualized rate), well below Q2’s strong 3.9% rise.
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Consumer discretionary stocks have strengthened their lead among the major US equity sectors this month, based on trailing one-year total return data for a set of ETF proxies. After bumping healthcare shares from the top spot recently, the Consumer Discretionary SPDR ETF (XLY) has widened its performance edge over the rest of the field in October.
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● US mortgage applications bounce back after reg change | CNBC
● US existing home sales expected to inch higher in September | MNI
● French business confidence at 4-year high in October | Bloomberg
● UK retail sales post strong rise in September | MNI
● ECB expected to hint at more stimulus today | Reuters
● Spain’s jobless rate falls to 4-year low in Q3 | Bloomberg