Daily Archives: October 15, 2015

US Industrial Production: September 2015 Preview

US industrial production is expected to be flat in tomorrow’s September report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average prediction for no change in last month’s output compares with a 0.4% decline in August.
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Upbeat Jobless Claims & Consumer Data As Mfg. Slump Endures

The ongoing decline in jobless claims looks too good to be true, and by some accounts that’s all that you need to know. The historical record tells us otherwise, but if the bullish signal embedded in the low number of new filings for unemployment benefits is misleading. as implied by Challenger’s estimate of rising job cuts, we’ll know soon enough. Meantime, the Labor Department reports that claims fell last week to a seasonally adjusted 255,000–the second time since July that claims have touched a 42-year low. Taken at face value, the numbers imply that the weak pace of growth in payrolls in recent months will soon perk up.
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Is The Business Cycle Dead… Or Just Dormant?

Recession talk is on the rise lately, and for an obvious reason: the economic data has been weak. Yesterday’s monthly update on retail sales, for instance, reveals that spending in the US rose a tepid 0.1%. Soft data can be found in several other indicators, including industrial production, the ISM Manufacturing Index, and flat-to-slightly-negative growth in the US monetary base. (For an overview, see last month’s economic profile.) The markets are also pricing in higher macro risk, as I discussed earlier this week. It all adds up to a troubling environment that may be an early clue that the US is headed for a new recession. But there’s an alternative scenario: slow/sluggish growth that feels like a recession but doesn’t lead to the standard NBER-defined downturn.
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