Today’s retail sales report for September offers more evidence that consumer spending is plodding along at a sluggish pace. The appetite for consumption has clearly downshifted in recent months, but it’s not obvious that spending is falling off a cliff into a recessionary hole when we look at the annual comparison.
Continue reading →

Rising uncertainty about the global economy continues to boost demand for US Treasuries. “It’s all a global growth fear trade,” Priya Misra, head of global rates strategy at TD Securities, tells Reuters. Expectations that China will continue to slow, coupled with forecasts of weaker growth in the US and Europe relative to recent projections, are inspiring new purchases of safe-haven Treasuries. Adding to the demand for safety and a hedge against more disinflation/deflation is the continued outlook for low inflation in the US and elsewhere.
Continue reading →

● US small business confidence up marginally in Sep | Reuters
● Redbook: US retail sales fall in 1st week of Oct | DJ
● Eurozone industrial output declined in August | Reuters
● China’s inflation rate eases to 1.6% YoY in Sep | RTT
● UK jobless rate falls in report for August | RTT
● China’s Q3 GDP growth expected to slow to 6.8% YoY | Reuters