US retail sales are expected to increase 0.1% in tomorrow’s September report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average prediction reflects a slight deceleration in growth after the previous month’s sluggish 0.2% rise.
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Mr. Market’s cautious outlook of late is less acute at the moment relative to recent history, but it’s not obvious that all’s well. True, the US Stock Market Crash Risk Index is less threatening and a markets-based estimate of US business cycle risk has pulled back after briefly spiking higher in late-August and early September. Does that mean that it’s safe to go swimming in risky waters again? Maybe, but only for investors who: 1) can tolerate a fairly high degree of loss if they’re wrong and 2) are comfortable with a high-risk strategy of attempting to be early. For everyone else—particularly for “conservative” investors—the outlook is still sufficiently hazardous to remain cautious until a more convincing round of risk-on signals emerge.
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● China’s imports and exports slump in September| Bloomberg
● Germany’s ZEW survey: investor confidence falls to 1yr low in Oct | Bloomberg
● India’s industrial output in Aug rose at fastest pace in nearly 3yrs | WSJ
● German inflation slips back to zero in September | RTE
● UK inflaition goes slightly negative in September | MarketWatch
● Angus Deaton wins Nobel in economics for studying consumption | Reuters