There may be a rate hike around the next bend in the calendar after all. Or maybe not. Like the possibility of rain next Tuesday or peace in the Middle East over the next 50 years, you can’t rule anything out. Ruling it in isn’t a slam-dunk, but today’s lineup of Fed officials on the media-go-round want you to know that tighter monetary policy before the year is out isn’t impossible.
Continue reading
Daily Archives: October 9, 2015
Macro Markets Risk Index: US Business Cycle Risk Eases
US economic risk has eased in recent days, according to a markets-based estimate of macro conditions. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at +3.9% yesterday (Oct. 8) after slipping into mildly negative territory for brief periods since late-August. MMRI’s recent readings in the red mark the first run of negative values since early 2012. It’s important to note that while a markets-based view of the business cycle has turned cautious lately, there’s no confirming support in the hard economic data–at least not based on published numbers to date. Although some indicators are flashing warnings, the majority of key macro indicators are still trending positive for the US.
Continue reading