Gallup’s US Job Creation Index remained at a seven-year high in today’s update for September. Is that a clue for thinking that last week’s disappointing employment report for September is only a temporary setback?
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If it wasn’t already obvious, two updates this week warn that a slowdown in global economic growth is underway. It’s still debatable if the weaker trend will continue and unleash a new worldwide recession. The US economy is certainly vulnerable, but it’s premature to say that an NBER-defined contraction is fate for the world’s biggest economy. But one thing is clear: macro risk has ticked higher, as new reports from Markit Economics and Fulcrum Asset Management remind.
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Is the Federal Reserve still pondering a rate hike in 2015? Possibly, but the recent weakness in employment growth and industrial activity suggest that keeping the Fed funds rate close to zero may persist for “much longer, well into 2016 or potentially even beyond,” counsels Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs’ chief economist, in a note to clients.
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● US trade gap widens in Aug as exports slump | LA Times
● Gallup’s US Economic Confidence Index flat in Sep vs. Aug | Gallup
● Redbook: US store sales fell 1.6% in Sep vs. Aug | DJ
● German industrial output slides in August–biggest drop in a year | Reuters
● UK industrial output up more than forecast in Aug | RTT
● Spain’s industrial output tumbles 1.4% in August | INE