Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 177,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s September report from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction reflects a modest improvement over the weak 140,000 gain in August.
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Daily Archives: October 1, 2015
Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model Cuts Q3 Growth Outlook For US
One forecast for a weak US economy in the final months of the year just got weaker. The outlook for third-quarter GDP growth in the US was cut in half today in the widely followed GDPNow algorithm that’s published by the Atlanta Fed. The previous estimate for a 1.8% rise was already tepid–well below Q2’s solid 3.9% advance. But the new forecast for the third quarter quarter that begins today withered even further, slipping to a thin 0.9% (seasonally adjusted annual rate).
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US Jobless Claims Rise, But Remain Close To Multi-Decade Lows
US jobless claims rose last week, the Labor Department reports, although new filings remain close to four-decade lows. Despite the latest jump, today’s news suggests that the labor market is still expanding. As a result, any blowback from the recent turmoil in global markets and diminished expectations for the world economy has yet to make a serious dent in the forward momentum for the US macro trend.
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Major Asset Classes | September 2015 | Performance Review
September was another rough month for most of the major asset classes. The main exception: US real estate investment trusts (REITs), which popped 3.0% last month (MSCI REIT Index). The safe haven of fixed income also provided some relief. Investment-grade bonds in the US and in foreign developed markets inched higher as renewed concerns about global growth convinced the crowd to run for cover. Otherwise, red ink was the dominant theme as the third quarter stumbled to an end.
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Initial Guidance | 1 October 2015
● ADP: US private payrolls rise a solid 200k in Sep | RTT
● US mortgage apps fell last week after previous surge | HousingWire
● Chicago PMI tumbles in September–lowest since 2009 | 24/7 Wall Street
● Official China Mfg PMI from gov’t ticks higher in September | CNBC
● IMF head sees another downgrade for global economic growth | NY Times
● Modest growth for Eurozone Mfg PMI in Sep Confirmed at 52.0 | Markit
● Markit’s China Mfg PMI revised up slightly to 47.2 | CNBC