The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to fall to 50.6 in tomorrow’s update for September vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction is fractionally above the neutral 50.0 mark. The estimate still translates into a forecast for growth for this benchmark of economic activity in the US manufacturing sector, but just barely.
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The pace of growth for private-sector employment picked up in September, according to this morning’s ADP Employment Report. US companies added 200,000 jobs to payrolls last month, a moderately stronger gain vs. a revised increase of 187,000 in August. The upbeat numbers suggest that Friday’s official jobs report from Washington will also deliver encouraging numbers for September. Meantime, today’s data throws cold water on the notion that the US economy stumbled this month.
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Last Friday I reviewed some of the bearish signals that were casting dark shadows across the US stock market. This week’s trading activity through Tuesday isn’t helping. Drawdown for S&P 500 as of yesterday (Sep. 29) has slipped deeper into the red, falling to -11.6%. The slide below the -10% mark triggered another red signal for the Crash Risk Index (CRI), which is again flirting with a clear warning—five of its 10 components are in the danger zone. Another leg down in the market would tip the scale decisively into the red (assuming that the current profile hasn’t already sent you running for cover).
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● US consumer confidence index rises in September | Reuters
● US home prices rise at slightly faster annual rate in July | WSJ
● US exports fall 3.5% in July vs. year-earlier level | WSJ
● Redbook: US retail sales at chain stores fall 1.5% in Sep vs. year ago | DJ
● Eurozone headline inflation is negative in Sep | RTT
● Germany retail spending falls in Aug after strong July | MarketWatch