Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 172,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s September update of the ADP Employment Report vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average projection reflects a modestly lower gain vs. the advance in August.
Continue reading →

The odds for a Fed rate hike are falling like a stone, or so it appears based on the implied inflation forecast via the yield spread on nominal less inflation-indexed Treasuries. The slide is especially pronounced for 10-year maturities, which are now pricing future US inflation at the lowest level–just below 1.4%–since the end of the last recession in 2009 (based on daily data from Treasury.gov as of Sep. 28). That’s substantially below the Fed’s 2% target. The accuracy of the Treasury market’s inflation projections are questionable, as always. Nonetheless, it’s clear that the crowd’s managing expectations down on the outlook for inflation.
Continue reading →

● US personal spending: +0.4% in August, matching July’s rise | BEA
● US disposable personal income: +0.4% in August vs. +0.5% in July | BEA
● US pending home sales fall in August, but still at “healthy” level | NAR
● Dallas Fed: Mfg contraction eases in September | Dallas Fed
● Eurozone Business Climate Indicator inches higher in Sep | EC