The Atlanta’s Fed’s GDPNow model raised its outlook for US economic growth in the third quarter to 1.5% in yesterday’s update (Sep 15). That’s still a sluggish pace, but it beats a kick in the head. Alas, it still falls short of a clear signal for raising interest rates, which is potentially on the agenda at the Fed’s policy meeting, which concludes with tomorrow’s statement and press conference.
Continue reading →

Housing starts are expected to slide lower to 1.179 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in tomorrow’s update for August, according to The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The projection represents a modest decline from the previous month’s level of residential construction activity.
Continue reading →

The Treasury market’s 2-year yield yesterday (Sep. 15) broke the ceiling, rising nine basis points to a new four-year high of 0.82%, based on Treasury.gov’s daily data. After repeatedly testing but never breaking above the low-0.70% range this year, this key yield—reportedly the most sensitive spot on the curve for rate expectations—pushed above the old barrier on Tuesday. The timing of the increase–ahead of tomorrow’s policy announcement from the Federal Reserve–looks like a decisive bet that the central bank will begin raising rates when it issues a public statement on Thursday.
Continue reading →

● OECD reduces 2016 global growth forecast to 3.0% from 3.6% | Reuters
● Rate hike mistakes by central banks: A brief history | NY Times
● What could go wrong with Fed rate hike? | Bloomberg