Daily Archives: September 2, 2015

ADP: US Private-Sector Jobs Rise 190k In August

Payrolls at US companies increased by a moderate 190,000 (seasonally adjusted) in August, according to this morning’s monthly release of the ADP Employment Report. The respectable if not particularly impressive gain is slightly below Econoday.com’s consensus forecast for a 210,000 advance. Meanwhile, last month’s rise translates into another round of easing for the year-over-year rate. Nonetheless, today’s numbers are strong enough to fend off worries that a recession is imminent for the US.
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US Economic Growth: The Last Line Of Defense

The recent turbulence in financial and commodity markets has cast a dark shadow over the near-term outlook. Not surprisingly, given the depth and speed of the rout, a number of forward-looking markets-based models are signaling more trouble ahead, namely an extended bear market in stocks and perhaps an economic recession for the US and elsewhere. But if there’s still a reason to refrain from throwing in the towel and joining hands with the bears it’s because the broad macro trend for the US remains positive. Is that because the economic numbers arrive with a lag and so the worst is yet to come? Maybe, but that view amounts to guesswork at this point.
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Risk Premia Forecasts | 2 September 2015

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) fell in August, sliding to the lowest level in recent history. GMI — an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes — is projected to earn an annualized 3.4% over the “risk-free” rate in the long term. (For details on the equilibrium-based methodology that’s used to generate the forecasts each month, see the summary below). Today’s updated estimate, which is based on data through the close of last month, decreased 30 basis points from the previous projection.
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