Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 194,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s August update of the ADP Employment Report vs. the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average projection reflects a modestly stronger gain vs. July’s advance.
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US economic risk increased at the end of August, according to a markets-based estimate of macro conditions. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at +0.4% yesterday (August 31) after briefly slipping into mildly negative territory for several days last week. MMRI’s temporary dip into the red in late-August marks the first negative readings since early 2012. It’s important to note that while a markets-based view of the business cycle has turned cautious lately, there’s no confirming support in the hard economic data–at least not based on published numbers to date.
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August was a painful month for most markets around the world. Other than fractional gains in foreign bond markets (mainly in developed countries), last month delivered a deep shade of red ink far and wide. The big loser: stocks in emerging markets (MSCI EM Index), which shed a hefty 9.0% in August–the biggest monthly setback in more than three years.
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● Dallas Fed Index: General Business Activity Index tumbles in August
● Chicago PMI ticks down to 54.4 for Aug, but remains in solid growth territory
● Eurozone PMI: manufacturing activity steady at moderate growth level in August
● China PMI: factory output falls sharply in August
● Eurozone unemployment rate ticks down to 10.9% in August
● Germany’s jobless population falls more than expected in August
● IMF anticipates weaker-than-expected global growth due to China