The US stock market couldn’t hold on to its snap-back rally in early trading on Tuesday, but Treasury yields posted a sharp U-turn yesterday (Aug. 25). For a day, at least, the notion that the appetite for safety was limitless was turned on its head as the crowd sold bonds.
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● US Services PMI posts solid growth for August
● New home sales in US increase to 7-month high in July
● US consumer confidence rises sharply in August
● S&P Case-Shiller: US home prices still rising at moderate annual pace through June
● Redbook: US chain-store sales rise in first 3 weeks of August

Looking for signs that the US is slipping into a recession in the wake of recent turmoil in the global equity markets? You won’t find a smoking gun in today’s initial August estimate of economic activity in the services sector from Markit Economics. The group’s flash data for its US Services PMI ticked down to 55.2 this month, slightly below July’s 55.7 reading. But that’s still well above the neutral 50.0 mark. The bottom line: the crucial services sector—the dominant source of employment in the US—continues to expand at a healthy if slightly slower pace, according to today’s headline PMI number.
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Stock markets around the world have tumbled in recent days, which implies that expectations for economic growth have taken a hit. But markets aren’t flawless prediction machines and so it’s debatable if the current turmoil will lead to a contraction in global output vs. slower growth. If you’re a true optimist, you may be inclined to read the latest tantrum as noise, with little if any relevance for the real economy.
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● China’s stock market tumbles again on Tuesday
● Europe’s equity markets on firmer footing after Monday’s rout
● US economic growth picks up in July via Chicago Fed Index
● China Leading Index rises in July, Conference Board reports
● Business confidence in Germany increases in August

US economic output accelerated in July, returning to its historical trend rate, according to this morning’s update of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index’s three-month average (CFNAI-MA3). The benchmark’s rise to 0.0 marks the strongest pace of growth in six months, based on CFNAI-MA3.
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The global markets are predicting that the macro trend is turning ugly. In China, which is ground zero for the latest round of worries, it’s clear that growth is slowing. Given the size and influence of China’s economy, the fallout could be substantial. Does this mean that a new recession is destiny for the US? It’d be foolish to dismiss the threat that’s brewing. But it’s also clear that there’s still a positive tailwind blowing for the world’s largest economy through July. The key question: How will the trend compare in August? A compelling answer, one way or the other, will take several weeks at the earliest. Next week’s August report on nonfarm payrolls, for instance, will be a critical number for deciding if the trend is deteriorating. Meantime, let’s summarize what the numbers are telling us about the US macro trend to date.
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● Stocks continue falling on Monday in China and Europe
● NABE: Economists think Fed rate hike will be delayed
● PMI: US mfg growth slows to 22-month low in August
● Eurozone growth ticks higher in August via Composite PMI
● Consumer confidence in Europe posts a slight rise in August

The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to rise fractionally in the July update that’s scheduled for tomorrow (Aug. 24), based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The projection for 0.04 is slightly above the -0.01 reading for June, which reflects a below-average pace of economic growth for the US relative to the historical trend. Only negative values below -0.70 indicate an “increasing likelihood” that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Using today’s estimate for June as a guide, CFNAI’s three-month average is expected to reflect an expansion that’s close to the historical trend rate for growth and therefore well above the tipping point that marks the start of a new recession.
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The end of the summer is in sight. How’d that happen? Hmmm… maybe my calendar’s slow. Oh, well, no time to waste. Your editor’s playing hooky for rest of the week to cash in on the waning days of August. The daily grind resumes on Monday, August 24. Cheers!