US retail sales are expected to increase 0.3% in tomorrow’s July report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The mean prediction reflects a modest rebound after the previous month’s 0.3% decline.
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US labor productivity rebounded in the second quarter rising 1.3%–a solid revival from Q1’s 1.1% decline (revised up from the previously estimated 3.1% decline). But the trend remains weak—productivity increased only 0.5% for the 12 months through June. Yet labor unit costs are rising at a much faster rate—up 2.2% in year-over-year terms through Q2. “What it means is that inflation could be more problematic down the road, but we haven’t seen it yet,” says Gennadiy Goldberg, an economist at TD Securities. “It’s something to think about long term.” For the moment, however, the Treasury market appears to be preoccupied with other matters, namely, the risk that disinflation is gaining the upper hand once again.
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● US productivity posts sluggish rise in Q2
● A modest rebound for small business confidence in US
● US wholesale inventories jump in June as sales tick slightly higher
● Slower growth for China’s industrial output and retail spending in July
● Eurozone industrial activity is weaker than forecast in June
● Decline in UK jobless claims in July beats forecasts