Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 205,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s update for July from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction reflects a modestly lower increase vs. the 223,000 advance in June.
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Yesterday’s ADP estimate on US private payrolls in July was a bit of a disappointment. Companies added 185,000 workers last month—the smallest gain in three months. The news implies that tomorrow’s official jobs report from Washington for July will also reflect softer growth. Is the weaker-than-expected increase a sign that the labor market’s cooling? Maybe, although the latest ISM Non-Manufacturing survey numbers for July suggests that the services sector, the primary source of US employment, is still adding new jobs at a strong pace. In other words, last month’s softer payrolls report via ADP is mostly due to manufacturing—the energy sector in particular, which is reeling from sharply lower commodity prices. The broad trend for US employment, however, continues to look encouraging, courtesy of the upbeat numbers in services.
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● ADP: US private-job growth slows in July
● ISM: US services-sector growth accelerates in July
● US Services PMI strengthened in July
● US trade gap rises 7% in June on stronger imports
● PMI: global economic growth ticked higher in July
● Eurozone retail PMI surges to 4-year high in July
● German factory orders surged in June
● UK industrial production is surprisingly weak in June