Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 227,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s July update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average projection is modestly below June’s increase.
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The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked up in July, touching a two-month high. GMI — an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes — is projected to earn an annualized 3.7% over the “risk-free” rate in the long term. (For details on the equilibrium-based methodology that’s used to generate the forecasts each month, see the summary below). Today’s updated estimate, which is based on data through the close of last month, increased 10 basis points from the previous projection.
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● US personal spending +0.4% and income +0.2% in June
● US auto sales surge 5.3% in July
● ISM: US manufacturing growth ticks down in July
● US construction spending rises by a sluggish 0.1% in June
● Gallup: US consumer spending flat in July