US retail sales are expected to increase 0.2% in tomorrow’s June report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The mean prediction reflects a sharp deceleration in growth vs. the previous month’s 1.2 percent rise.
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It’s hard to overestimate the importance of modeling tail risk when it comes to the care and feeding of investment portfolios. But where to begin? The topic of studying, estimating and otherwise dissecting rare but extreme market events can be a black hole of analytical possibilities and econometric complexity. It’s also too important to be left as a plaything for rocket scientists. With that in mind, here begins the first in a series of statistical investigations into the realm of return distributions when the tail wags the dog.
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● Europe says it has a reached a new bailout deal for Greece…
● Which means there’s a new basis for talking about details for aiding Greece…
● Meanwhile, Fed head Janet Yellen says a rate hike is due later this year…
● China is world’s biggest oil importer for 2nd month…
● As oil prices ease amid talks on Iran nuclear deal…
● And global desktop computer sales slump ahead of Windows 10 launch.