There’s renewed talk of a looming US recession these days. One argument that’s topical is the view that we’re overdue for a downturn. The current expansion, which began in mid-2009 (based on NBER data), is now six years old, which ranks as above average for the post-World War II era. By some accounts, that’s a smoking gun. But it’s debatable if the age of expansions per se is truly a factor that determines the timing of contractions. Financial and economic context, in other words, is critical. Meantime, some economists argue that because the recovery from the Great Recession has been slow, the length of the expansion will be longer than usual. In any case, the current profile suggests that recession risk is low, based on the published numbers to date.
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● US jobless claims increased to a 5-month high…
● As Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort Index eased from a 2-month high…
● And the average US mortgage rate fell to 4.04% last week…
● Meanwhile, a new new deal for Greece inspires optimism…
● While China’s stock market rout shows signs of stabilizing…