The US economic trend remains modestly positive as the second quarter comes to a close, based on a markets-based estimate of macro conditions. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at +4.8% yesterday (June 25). Although that’s close to the lowest level for the past year and reflects slower growth, the current reading is still comfortably above zero, which implies that business-cycle risk remains relatively low. A decline below 0% in MMRI would indicate that recession risk is elevated while readings above 0% imply that the economy will expand in the near-term future. Analyzing price data in the financial and commodities markets with a probit model also suggests that macro risk is low.
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● US consumer spending in May posted its biggest increase in six years while personal income perked up to its strongest advance in 14 months…
● Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims remained below the 300,000 mark for a 16th week…
● The revival in consumer spending “portends well for second-quarter growth and the broader momentum of economic activity in the second half of the year, and keeps the prospect of a September rate hike squarely on the table,” said Anthony Karydakis, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak…
● Even the recently slumping Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index made a positive U-turn, delivering its biggest gain for last week’s reading since April.
● On a relatively weak note among yesterday’s updates, Markit’s US Services PMI posted a slower growth rate at the end of Q2…
● Nonetheless, the Q2 GDP outlook improved a bit: the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate ticked up to 2.1% in yesterday’s update–the model’s highest Q2 forecast to date.
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