The Chicago Fed National Activity Index’s three-month average (CFNAI-MA3) posted a fractional increase in May. Although growth remains below trend, the business cycle benchmark’s three-month average ticked higher for the second month in a row and is currently at its highest level since January. As such, recession risk remains low, based on the three-month average of the index, which rose to -0.16 last month—well above the -0.70 mark that signals the start of new recessions, according to Chicago Fed guidelines.
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US economic growth is projected to post a moderate rebound in the second quarter, based on The Capital Spectator’s average estimate for several econometric-based forecasts. GDP is on track to rise 1.7% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the “advance” Q2 report scheduled for release on July 30 via the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The average forecast is a relatively sluggish rate, although today’s revised outlook marks a revival after Q1’s 0.7% slump.
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● Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index: Growth Still Stunted in May | Morningstar
● US Existing-Home Sales Increase 5.1% in May | WSJ
● Eurozone flash consumer confidence indicator stable in June | EC
● Flash Eurozone PMI hits four-year high in June | Markit
● German PMI: output increases at stronger rate, new order growth slows | Markit
● China Manufacturing Sector Continues To Shrink – HSBC | RTT