Is the US on the cusp of a new recession? The latest numbers on industrial production suggest that business-cycle risk is rising. Why, then, don’t we see confirming signals from other key indicators? Notably, payrolls are still rising at a solid pace (in year-over-year terms)—ditto for real personal consumption expenditures. The industrial sector is clearly weak, and getting weaker, but for the moment this appears to be an isolated downtrend. It could turn out to be something darker, although a broad review of the numbers suggests otherwise, based on current data.
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● UK Inflation Turns Positive In May | RTT
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