Should we continue to consider the weekly jobless claims data as one of the more “reliable” leading indicators of the US business cycle? If the answer is “yes” — as it should be — then yesterday’s update continues to offer an encouraging outlook for the economy. Although new filings for unemployment benefits ticked up by 2,000 in the first week of June to a seasonally adjusted 279,000, that’s close to a 15-year low. In other words, the implied forecast remains upbeat for the labor market and, by extension, the US macro profile.
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● US retail sales jump in a sign of more confident consumers | USN&WR
● US jobless claims inch up to 279,000 in first week of June | MarketWatch
● Consumer Comfort in US Falls for a Record 9th Straight Week | Bloomberg
● US business inventories post largest gain in nearly a year | Reuters
● Eurozone Industrial Production Growth At 3-month Low In April | RTT
● IMF walks out of Greek creditor negotiations | The Independent
● Keeping Greece in Euro May Be Unrelated To Finances | Bloomberg