US retail sales are expected to increase 0.5% in tomorrow’s May report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The mean prediction reflects a modest improvement vs. the previous month’s flat performance. Recent surveys of economists, by contrast, project a substantially stronger rate of growth for retail spending in May.
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Vanguard founder John Bogle tells Benzinga that he expects a long-term nominal return on the US stock market of roughly 7.0% a year, based on a current dividend yield of around 2.0 percent plus expected earnings growth of 5.0%. In the years ahead, however, he thinks that the market’s valuation will slide to a price-earnings ratio of 15 from the current 20, which pares the near-term return forecast to around 4.0%. But it gets worse. “When you factor in the costs associated with index funds, inflation, and taxes, you are actually looking at real returns of nominal to zero,” Bogle said.
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● Job openings in US hit 14-year high in April | USA Today
● US small-business optimism index rises to 5-month high in May | MarketWatch
● German bond yield at 1% for the first time since September | Reuters
● French industrial output falls unexpectedly in April | MarketWatch
● UK Industrial Output Growth Slows In April | RTT
● China’s economy to pick up in H2: central bank economists | Reuters