Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 178,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s update for May from the Labor Department, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction reflects a moderately lower gain vs. the 213,000 increase in April.
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Recession talk is fast and loose these days, but a fair amount of the chattering on this topic is anecdotal. Fortunately, there are a number of superior (i.e, relatively objective) metrics to consider based on hard data and robust modeling, including one technique that shows up regularly on The Capital Spectator (see last month’s update). But even if you’re adhering to best practices, there’s still the problem of a time lag. In some cases, we have to wait a month or two before we see fresh figures for a given indicator, which is usually reflecting some period in recent history. There’s also the matter of revisions to consider. Signals can change as updates for previously released numbers are published. One way to bridge the gap is with market data, which are available in real-time and immune to revisions.
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● US firms add 201,000 jobs in May, ADP says | LA Times
● US trade deficit drops sharply to $40.9B in April | USA Today
● US Job Creation Index Edges Up to New High in May | Gallup
● U.S. Service Sector Grows At Slowest Rate In Over A Year In May: ISM | RTT
● US service sector activity growth slows in May: PMI | Markit
● Global employment rises at quickest pace since end of 2007: PMI | Markit